Possible scenario
Accountability Mechanism Advances
20% Chance
The UN-documented cases feed into ICC investigations, national universal-jurisdiction cases and Ukraine’s domestic war-crimes prosecutions. This outcome has major legal and diplomatic significance, but near-term market implications remain limited unless paired with sanctions or aid measures.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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