Possible scenario
Hard Ban Gains Momentum
15% Chance
A less likely but market-relevant path is that the doomsday framing breaks normal partisan lines and a real moratorium coalition forms. The unusual Sanders-Bannon alignment could attract populists, labor advocates, child-safety lawmakers, and national-security skeptics of uncontrolled frontier AI.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -3.5%
- Utilities -1.4%
- Business Services +0.7%
- Industrials -0.2%
Tickers
- NVDA-4.8%
- MSFT-3.3%
- -2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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