Possible scenario
Compromise Safety Regime
30% Chance
A narrower compromise emerges that drops the blanket superintelligence ban but creates licensing, model-evaluation, incident-reporting, and compute-threshold rules. This would be more politically viable because it preserves U.S. AI competition while answering the recent warnings from Sanders, Bannon, OpenAI, Anthropic, and the UN.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.7%
- Technology -0.3%
- Utilities -0.1%
Tickers
- AMZN+0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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