Possible scenario
Missile Supply Expands
20% Chance
Investigators identify North Korean or Iranian-origin missile components in the Kyiv attack, confirming that Russia's external supply network is widening. This would shift focus from battlefield dynamics to sanctions enforcement, shipping controls, and broader pressure on Tehran and Pyongyang.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
- Energy +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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