Possible scenario
Missile Campaign Continues
40% Chance
Russia treats the ceasefire claim as diplomatic cover rather than a constraint and continues ballistic missile attacks on Kyiv and other major Ukrainian cities. The most likely path is a sustained pressure campaign designed to exploit Ukraine's Patriot interceptor shortages without crossing NATO's formal red lines.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.