Possible scenario
Rapid Cardon Restart
45% Chance
The most likely path is that PDVSA contains the fire damage and brings part of the 310,000 bpd Cardon refinery back quickly. Venezuela has strong incentives to preserve export momentum while limiting domestic fuel shortages.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Tickers
- CVX+0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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