Possible scenario
Prolonged Refinery Outage
30% Chance
Fire damage may be more serious than first reported, keeping major units offline for weeks. Venezuela would likely prioritize crude exports but face higher fuel imports, operational bottlenecks, and political pressure at home.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
Tickers
- CVX-1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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