Split Congress Locks In

18%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

James wins the House seat, but Republicans retain or strengthen their Senate position, producing a divided Congress. The most likely policy path is gridlock, with tax, energy, and spending fights moving to negotiation rather than one-party lawmaking.

What it moves

Consumer Cyclicals+0.3%
Technology+0.3%
Market volatility▼ down
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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