Possible scenario
Release Calms Protests
42% Chance
The leader's release gives the government and police a face-saving way to lower tensions after mass detentions. Opposition parties keep criticizing the Election Commission, but street mobilization eases as courts and party lawyers secure further bail orders.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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