Possible scenario
Managed Police Pressure
30% Chance
Authorities release high-profile leaders but keep pressure on organizers through preventive detention, barricades, and bans on large gatherings. This keeps demonstrations contained but sustains political risk around the election chief and voter-roll dispute.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Technology -0.1%
- Business Services
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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