Possible scenario
Refiners Push Back
27% Chance
The large Murban premium encourages Asian refiners to switch incremental purchases toward cheaper Saudi, Iraqi, or spot-market grades. This would reinforce the competitive pressure already visible after Saudi Aramco’s Asia OSP cut.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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