Possible scenario
Murban Premium Holds
42% Chance
ADNOC’s $11 premium to Dubai is treated as evidence that light-sour Murban remains scarce relative to medium-sour Middle East grades. Chinese import strength and stable OPEC+ quotas support the differential, even as Saudi Aramco’s low Asia OSP caps broader crude-price upside.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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