Possible scenario
Retaliatory Hybrid Activity
20% Chance
Russia or Russia-linked actors respond with additional pressure, such as cyber probing, disinformation, or renewed drone activity near critical infrastructure. This is the more disruptive tail, but still below the threshold of a direct NATO-Russia military confrontation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
- Consumer Services -0.7%
- Technology +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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