Possible scenario
Security Incident Interrupts
20% Chance
A naval or paramilitary incident tests the restored export corridor and revives market concern that Hormuz access can again be politicized. A full closure is unlikely, but even a limited confrontation would lift crude and volatility over the next trading sessions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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