Possible scenario
Orderly Export Normalization
45% Chance
Iraq's first state-tanker crude movement through Hormuz becomes the start of a controlled, politically cleared export channel. Iran avoids disrupting Iraqi cargoes after U.S. naval operations restore traffic, while Baghdad uses the voyages to rebuild the Iraq Oil Tankers Company's role.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Industrials +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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