Possible scenario
Contained Air Disruption
45% Chance
Ukraine continues using long-range drones to impose economic and psychological costs on Moscow, but the raids remain focused on aviation disruption rather than mass-casualty targets. Russia absorbs the operational strain with temporary closures, rerouting, and expanded air-defense coverage around the capital.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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