Possible scenario
Campaign Hits Infrastructure
20% Chance
Ukraine follows the airport raid with additional attacks on Russian logistics, fuel, or industrial infrastructure. This would shift investor attention from temporary air-traffic disruption to the risk of supply interruptions, especially if refineries or export-linked assets are hit.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.0%
- Energy +0.7%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.