Possible scenario
Unrest Spreads Nationally
23% Chance
The Peshawar clashes become a trigger for larger PTI mobilization in Islamabad, Lahore, Karachi, and Rawalpindi. The federal government responds with arrests, road closures, and intermittent mobile-data restrictions, raising Pakistan's political-risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.