Possible scenario
Negotiated De-Escalation
24% Chance
Back-channel talks involving PTI, the federal government, and senior institutional figures reopen after the initial Peshawar clashes. A deal does not resolve Pakistan's political crisis, but it reduces street violence and creates a legal path for contesting the KP takeover.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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