Scenario description
Assume that by 2027-03-31 Russia’s announced 2026 army personnel increases and the reported conversion of the 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade into the 84th Motor Rifle Division have translated into a sustained, materially larger Russia deployable Ukraine-war ground force. The initiating change is operational, not merely administrative: additional manned formations or reinforced reorganized formations are present in the Ukraine theater for a sustained period, including but not limited to the Kostyantynivka front, and Russian authorities or credible military observers describe the increase as fielded combat or combat-support manpower rather than paper billets. Precise net troop counts, equipment fill rates and rotation quality are unavailable unless reported by resolution sources.