Scenario description
Assume that by 2027-03-31 Russia’s reported personnel increases and brigade-to-division reorganization have not produced a sustained larger deployable Ukraine-war force because casualty attrition, rotation strain, equipment shortages, or training bottlenecks have overtaken the formal expansion. The initiating change is an operational and fiscal/manpower stress response that has taken effect, such as documented inability to man new formations at expected strength, consolidation or understrength deployment of newly enlarged units, materially increased emergency recruitment incentives, coercive manpower measures, or other state labor-allocation measures aimed at replacing Ukraine-war losses. Exact casualty rates, replacement rates, pay levels and equipment shortfalls are unavailable unless reported by resolution sources.