Possible scenario
Charges Are Brought
18% Chance
A less likely but plausible outcome is that prosecutors decide some suspects had enough intent or preparation to justify charges. Because no explosives were found, the most realistic charges would focus on preparation, reconnaissance, or conspiracy rather than an imminent attack.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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