Possible scenario
Voluntary Deal Holds
45% Chance
The Trump administration secures enough voluntary participation from major Gulf Coast refiners to avoid a formal export ban. Diesel prices retreat modestly from record levels, while refiners accept narrower export optionality to preserve political goodwill.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.2%
- Energy -0.2%
Tickers
- VLO-0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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