Possible scenario
Curbs Fade Away
20% Chance
Industry lobbying, legal concerns, and objections from U.S. trading partners could dilute the policy into monitoring and public reporting. Export flows continue largely uninterrupted, supporting refiners but keeping pressure on diesel-intensive sectors.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.8%
- Industrials -0.8%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.6%
Tickers
- VLO+3.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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