Possible scenario
Coordinated Supply Relief
27% Chance
London coordinates with the IEA, EU member states and major refiners to ease the diesel shortage. Strategic stock releases, import waivers and targeted subsidies reduce the need for severe rationing.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.0%
- Industrials +0.8%
- Energy -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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