Possible scenario
Export Controls Escalate
22% Chance
Instead of easing, the diesel shock broadens as more governments restrict exports or extend existing bans. Europe and the UK compete for limited cargoes, keeping road fuel prices at record levels and raising stagflation concerns.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -1.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.7%
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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