Possible scenario
White House Moderates
20% Chance
The administration concludes that abortion remains too politically costly after the midterms and tries to return to Trump's states-rights framing. Antiabortion groups remain dissatisfied, but the White House avoids a sweeping federal enforcement move.
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare +0.3%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.1%
Tickers
- CVS+0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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