Possible scenario
Russian Retaliation Follows
28% Chance
Moscow responds to the loss of Su-34M aircraft with a calibrated escalation designed to signal resolve without directly attacking NATO. The most likely retaliation is a heavier missile and drone campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure, command sites, and air-defense positions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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