Possible scenario
Deep Strikes Continue
42% Chance
Ukraine treats the confirmed destruction of three Su-34M bombers as validation of its deep-strike campaign and continues attacking Russian aviation infrastructure. Russia disperses aircraft and reinforces air defenses, but the operational tempo remains high because U.S.-enabled intelligence and Ukrainian drone capacity are already in place.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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