Possible scenario
Crash Remains Contained
45% Chance
Saudi authorities treat the crash as a localized military aviation incident rather than a confirmed Houthi attack. Given the lack of immediate evidence in the headline and the frequency of border-area sorties, an accident or non-combat operational loss is the most likely path.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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