Possible scenario
Border Fighting Intensifies
20% Chance
The crash becomes part of a broader retaliation cycle following recent Houthi projectile, missile, and drone claims. Riyadh increases strikes and air-defense activity while Houthis try to demonstrate reach into southern Saudi Arabia.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.5%
- Industrials +0.4%
- Consumer Services -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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