Possible scenario
Execution Bottlenecks Emerge
25% Chance
The large DeepSeek allocation exposes manufacturing, advanced packaging, memory, networking or software-stack constraints. Investors conclude that China can source domestic AI chips, but not yet at the efficiency, volume or reliability needed to fully replace Nvidia in high-end workloads.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.3%
Tickers
- NVDA+2.7%
- AMD+0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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