Possible scenario
Targeted Carve-Outs Return
30% Chance
DHS keeps the national arrest goal in place but quietly reintroduces exemptions or softer enforcement for farms, hotels, restaurants, and food processors. This mirrors the earlier pause on arrests in sensitive labor sectors and reflects pressure from Republican governors, agribusiness groups, and hospitality employers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.8%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Tickers
- +1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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