Possible scenario
Sustained Nationwide Crackdown
35% Chance
ICE leadership treats the new order as a binding operational quota and pushes field offices to restore the July arrest pace. Detention capacity, new hires, and centralized pressure from DHS allow enforcement to remain elevated despite employer and state-level objections.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.1%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -1.0%
- Industrials -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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