Probe, Policy Holds

The most likely path is a Washington oversight cycle in which Democrats and some national-security Republicans press for records, but no immediate Ukraine-policy rupture follows. Vance denies knowingly amplifying Russian claims, while the White House and GOP leadership try to contain the issue as a media and intelligence-leak controversy.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.