Possible scenario
Emergency Quickly Contained
45% Chance
PJM stabilizes the system with emergency demand response, imports, and generator dispatch, and real-time prices retreat within hours. This is the most likely outcome because PJM has emergency procedures designed for scarcity intervals, and a single price spike does not necessarily imply sustained outages.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.5%
Tickers
- CEG+2.9%
- VST+2.4%
- +2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.