Possible scenario
Israel Tilts Toward Kyiv
25% Chance
The killing strengthens pressure inside Israel to provide Ukraine with more security assistance, especially warning systems and anti-drone technology. Israel still avoids large offensive transfers, but the policy shift is material because it erodes Moscow's expectation of Israeli restraint.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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