Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment
45% Chance
Israel condemns the strike, summons Russia's ambassador, demands an investigation, and coordinates consular support with Ukraine. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu avoids a direct military response because Israel still wants to preserve operational deconfliction with Russia over Syria.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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