Possible scenario
Russian Retaliation Escalates
20% Chance
Moscow responds militarily or economically to signal that attacks on core export infrastructure will carry costs. The market reaction is driven less by the single damaged station and more by the risk of a broader Russia-Ukraine energy-infrastructure campaign.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.6%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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