Possible scenario
Probe Narrows Quickly
45% Chance
The most likely path is that Israel's legal bureaucracy narrows Netanyahu's order into a limited review rather than a sweeping criminal case. The attorney general and state prosecutors have incentives to avoid a politically explosive prosecution over a Venice prize-winning film unless clear statutory violations emerge.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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