Possible scenario
Operational Risk Reappears
15% Chance
High launch cadence creates ongoing execution risk, even with a strong reliability record. A minor technical issue or anomaly could trigger a short FAA or Space Force review, temporarily interrupting the narrative of uninterrupted Falcon 9 availability.
Tickers
- RKLB+0.6%
- SPCX+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.