Possible scenario
Benign Irritant Incident
45% Chance
Polish investigators confirm the package contained a non-CBRN irritant such as cleaning-agent residue, adhesive solvent, or another low-grade chemical contaminant. The hospitalization of three people is treated as a workplace exposure rather than a security escalation.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.