Possible scenario
Campaign Becomes Sustained
28% Chance
The Houthis maintain pressure with additional salvos against Saudi energy infrastructure and transport nodes. Even without a full regional war, repeated attacks raise insurance costs, complicate Saudi export logistics, and keep crude prices elevated.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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