Possible scenario
Retaliation Expands Conflict
20% Chance
Riyadh concludes that defensive measures alone are insufficient and coordinates retaliatory action with the United States and Gulf partners. The key uncertainty is whether strikes stay confined to Houthi launch infrastructure in Yemen or draw in Iran-linked forces elsewhere.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.