Possible scenario
Retaliation Evidence Expands
20% Chance
A less likely but politically consequential path is that filings, whistleblower declarations, or discovery reveal a broader effort to identify and punish FBI personnel involved in Trump-related investigations. This would deepen the confrontation between career law-enforcement officials and Trump-appointed DOJ leadership.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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