Possible scenario
Negotiated Access Framework
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is a negotiated arrangement rather than a hard federal takeover of frontier-model release timing. OpenAI and Anthropic grant structured pre-release access to designated U.S. security agencies while preserving their commercial launch authority and safety-testing pact.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Business Services +0.4%
Tickers
- MSFT+0.2%
- AMZN+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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