Possible scenario
Binding Federal Gate
25% Chance
The White House converts its demand into a binding national-security review requirement for the largest U.S. AI models. This gives federal agencies practical veto power over timing, security mitigations, and early access for classified use cases.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.4%
- Technology -0.6%
- Business Services +0.6%
Tickers
- PLTR+2.7%
- MSFT-0.2%
- AMZN-0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.