Possible scenario
Congressional Probe Expands
35% Chance
The most likely path is a renewed congressional oversight push focused on the 2021 Garland memo, FBI threat-tagging practices, and the 25 identified investigations. House Judiciary Republicans and allied senators use the DOJ report to demand testimony, internal communications, and names of approving officials.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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