Possible scenario
Colom Upset Win
15% Chance
Colom converts national endorsements from Barack Obama and Pete Buttigieg, Senate Majority PAC spending, and unusually strong Black turnout into a narrow win. This would be a major Democratic breakthrough in a state long considered safely Republican.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Healthcare -0.2%
- Utilities +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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