Possible scenario
Diplomatic Escalation
26% Chance
Warsaw publicly attributes the threat to Russian intelligence or a Russian-directed proxy network. The response focuses on expulsions, sanctions coordination, intelligence warnings, and tighter internal security rather than a military step.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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